Opening up on a positive external background, the Russian market experienced a short-term decline, but then joined the growth of global stock indicators and oil. As a result, our indices updated the weekly tops, closing not far from them in a good plus, an additional positive for us was the softening of the US position on the "Nord Stream 2".
Positive factors
- Rising oil prices
- Growth of global stock markets
- Soft monetary policy of the world central banks
Negative factors
- Risks of increasing sanctions pressure on Russia
- Risks of the spread of coronavirus
In the details
Having opened with a large inter-session gap up on a positive external background, Russian indices lost ground for a while, but then moved to a progressive growth following the global markets and oil.
Yesterday, after the end of the main session, US indices and oil prices accelerated their rise, closing at the daily tops. Today, the upward movement has developed. The demand for risky assets is supported by a planned slowdown in the growth of new cases of coronavirus in the world.
True, in the morning, global markets consolidated in a narrow range for a long time, but at the beginning of the Russian session they resumed active growth. At first, we are not very enthusiastic about it because of the high geopolitical uncertainty.
However, then there was news about a possible compromise between the United States and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Given that Washington has previously taken a fundamentally uncompromising position on this issue, this may indicate that the Biden administration as a whole will not take an irrationally tough position towards Russia. There are chances for some constructive US foreign policy in this direction.
As a result, Russian indices accelerated their growth, updating weekly highs and showing final results that outperformed other stock markets. However, we have only slightly reduced the large gap that has formed in recent weeks as a result of our relative weakness.
However, if geopolitical uncertainty continues to weaken in at least one of the key areas, this will help to further reduce the discount in ruble-denominated assets associated with trade risks. However, this may occur not only due to the outstripping growth rates of our market, but also due to a slower decline, if global markets return to a downward trend.
Oil updates multi-month highs
On Tuesday, oil continued to develop the upward movement of the previous session. In the morning, the quotes consolidated, but at the beginning of our trading, they returned to a rapid rise, rewriting the twelve-month tops. However, after the start of the US session, there was a significant drawdown within the correction. At our close, Brent was adding almost 3% slightly below the $58 level.
Oil prices continue to rise at a faster pace than other markets, despite the growth of the dollar. Additional support for the quotes is provided by an improvement in oil demand forecasts, combined with a high level of compliance with the terms of the OPEC+deal.
Weekly industry statistics can influence the further dynamics of the oil market. Tomorrow at 00:30 Moscow Time, the report of the American Petroleum Institute is published, and at 18:30 — the US Department of Energy. Oil reserves are expected to increase by 0.4 million barrels. and the total increase in oil product reserves by 1.2 million barrels.
Corporate sector
The leaders of growth among relatively liquid securities today were the shares of PIK Group, which added 5.65%.
The rise in oil prices returned demand to the oil and gas sector: Novatek +3.8%; Lukoil +2.85%; Gazprom Neft +1.83%; Tatneft JSC +1.72%; Rosneft +1.58%; Tatneft ap +1.47%; Surgutneftegaz +1.35%; Gazprom +0.95%; Bashneft ap +0.77%.
Representatives of the financial sector showed positive dynamics: QIWI +3.06%; MOSBIRZHA +2.2%; Sberbank +1.2%; MKB +1.07%; VTB +1.02%; Sberbank-p +0.7%.
The capitalization of some metallurgical companies increased: Rusal +2.17%; Severstal +1.06%; NLMK +0.75%.
Purchases were observed in the electricity sector: OGK-2 +2.1%; Rosseti ao +1.44%; FGC UES +1.1%; RusHydro +0.38%; Inter RAO +0.36%.
Retailers rose in price: Magnet +1.65%; Detsky Mir +1.57%; M. Video +1.42%; OR +1%; Lenta +0.72%; X5 Retail +0.4%.
In addition, the best markets closed today: Sistema +4.17%; Raspadskaya +3.83%; ALROSA +2.13%; OZON +2.13%.
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