Commodity currencies look more attractive than the dollar for a long time

The US dollar, which on Wednesday among the Big Ten fell only against the commodity group (NZD +0.24%, NOK +0.20% and AUD +0.14%), on Thursday afternoon rose against all G10 currencies, with the exception of the Australian competitor. Here, the AUD reacted to information published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, according to which iron ore exports increased in December by 21.1% compared to November, and coal-by 26% m/m.



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The dollar index continues to move towards the target set by us at the level of 92 p. as part of an upward correction.

 

 In the short term, the dollar may continue to grow, as the positioning remains too skewed in favor of short positions on the US currency. At the same time, global stock markets seem to have stalled somewhat, lacking growth drivers, and recent US economic data has been surprisingly strong, raising questions about the feasibility of Biden's proposed massive $ 1.9 trillion stimulus.

But the current trend towards the strengthening of the US currency, in our opinion, is untenable neither in the medium nor in the long term. The US Federal Reserve will be patient with inflation, and rates will remain at near zero for quite some time. Real yields in the US, whether nominal Treasury yields (decadal 1.129%) net of inflation (1.4% yoy) or net of inflation expectations (2.2% at the end of 2021), continue to decline, indicating that the dollar's rise from the beginning of the year will not last long.

In the post-coronavirus period, it will also be important which countries will be able to carry out nationwide vaccination faster than others. The thesis that nationwide vaccination reflects the victory over the pandemic, and, consequently, allows the country's economy to begin to recover faster, and the currency of this country to strengthen-is true in many cases. But for the dollar, this may be an exception, since the United States, in one team with China, is the locomotive of the global economy.

Rapid vaccination in the US is a strong driver of global economic growth and global demand, as well as the reason for the decline in demand for protective assets, which also traditionally supports the US currency. From this point of view, the currencies of the commodity block look very preferable. The Norwegian krona, as well as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, will benefit from high vaccination rates in the US and other key commodity consumers.

Brent crude oil prices rose above $ 59 per barrel for the first time since February 21, 2020, fully recouping the drawdown of the coronavirus. This supported the ruble. The higher the confidence of market participants that new sanctions will be applied against the Russian Federation, the lower the geopolitical premium in the ruble, since the market relies on personalized restrictions on individual officials, possibly businessmen, and not on broad economic sanctions that could affect entire industries, such as the banking sector.

Against the background of a positive assessment of the main currencies linked to commodity assets, we continue to look constructively at the strengthening of the ruble in the medium term. We have repeatedly noted that the premium for geopolitical risk in the ruble looks inappropriate in such a size as it is now, while the market practically does not take into account the Russian national vaccination as a driver that puts the Russian Federation one step ahead of its "classmates" in the EM segment — South Africa, Brazil, Mexico.

The USDRUB is currently in the too high medium-term range of 75.00-80.00, and we see reasons to return to the fairer medium-term range of 75.00-70.00, with a shift to the middle of this corridor.

The results of the auction. Making up for lost time thanks to the easing of geopolitical pressure

Opening up on a positive external background, the Russian market experienced a short-term decline, but then joined the growth of global stock indicators and oil. As a result, our indices updated the weekly tops, closing not far from them in a good plus, an additional positive for us was the softening of the US position on the "Nord Stream 2".

Positive factors
- Rising oil prices
- Growth of global stock markets
- Soft monetary policy of the world central banks

Negative factors
- Risks of increasing sanctions pressure on Russia
- Risks of the spread of coronavirus

In the details

Having opened with a large inter-session gap up on a positive external background, Russian indices lost ground for a while, but then moved to a progressive growth following the global markets and oil.

Yesterday, after the end of the main session, US indices and oil prices accelerated their rise, closing at the daily tops. Today, the upward movement has developed. The demand for risky assets is supported by a planned slowdown in the growth of new cases of coronavirus in the world.

True, in the morning, global markets consolidated in a narrow range for a long time, but at the beginning of the Russian session they resumed active growth. At first, we are not very enthusiastic about it because of the high geopolitical uncertainty.

However, then there was news about a possible compromise between the United States and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Given that Washington has previously taken a fundamentally uncompromising position on this issue, this may indicate that the Biden administration as a whole will not take an irrationally tough position towards Russia. There are chances for some constructive US foreign policy in this direction.

As a result, Russian indices accelerated their growth, updating weekly highs and showing final results that outperformed other stock markets. However, we have only slightly reduced the large gap that has formed in recent weeks as a result of our relative weakness.

However, if geopolitical uncertainty continues to weaken in at least one of the key areas, this will help to further reduce the discount in ruble-denominated assets associated with trade risks. However, this may occur not only due to the outstripping growth rates of our market, but also due to a slower decline, if global markets return to a downward trend.

Oil updates multi-month highs

On Tuesday, oil continued to develop the upward movement of the previous session. In the morning, the quotes consolidated, but at the beginning of our trading, they returned to a rapid rise, rewriting the twelve-month tops. However, after the start of the US session, there was a significant drawdown within the correction. At our close, Brent was adding almost 3% slightly below the $58 level.

Oil prices continue to rise at a faster pace than other markets, despite the growth of the dollar. Additional support for the quotes is provided by an improvement in oil demand forecasts, combined with a high level of compliance with the terms of the OPEC+deal.

Weekly industry statistics can influence the further dynamics of the oil market. Tomorrow at 00:30 Moscow Time, the report of the American Petroleum Institute is published, and at 18:30 — the US Department of Energy. Oil reserves are expected to increase by 0.4 million barrels. and the total increase in oil product reserves by 1.2 million barrels.

Corporate sector

The leaders of growth among relatively liquid securities today were the shares of PIK Group, which added 5.65%.

The rise in oil prices returned demand to the oil and gas sector: Novatek +3.8%; Lukoil +2.85%; Gazprom Neft +1.83%; Tatneft JSC +1.72%; Rosneft +1.58%; Tatneft ap +1.47%; Surgutneftegaz +1.35%; Gazprom +0.95%; Bashneft ap +0.77%.

Representatives of the financial sector showed positive dynamics: QIWI +3.06%; MOSBIRZHA +2.2%; Sberbank +1.2%; MKB +1.07%; VTB +1.02%; Sberbank-p +0.7%.

The capitalization of some metallurgical companies increased: Rusal +2.17%; Severstal +1.06%; NLMK +0.75%.

Purchases were observed in the electricity sector: OGK-2 +2.1%; Rosseti ao +1.44%; FGC UES +1.1%; RusHydro +0.38%; Inter RAO +0.36%.

Retailers rose in price: Magnet +1.65%; Detsky Mir +1.57%; M. Video +1.42%; OR +1%; Lenta +0.72%; X5 Retail +0.4%.

In addition, the best markets closed today: Sistema +4.17%; Raspadskaya +3.83%; ALROSA +2.13%; OZON +2.13%.

The S&P 500 index. Recovery after sales

Following the results of trading on February 1, the S&P 500 index rose by 1.64% by the end of the session, stopping at 3773.77.

The technical picture

On Monday, the S&P 500 index was recovering from Friday's drawdown. A 4% decline from the highs encouraged investors to actively buy and allowed the instrument to grow by more than 1.5% during the session.

You can learn more about financial topics with deltamarket. The technical picture gives reason to continue counting on the gradual growth of the index up to resistance at the level of historical highs of 3870 p.

Today, major companies Amazon (4.4% in the index), Alphabet (1.9%), Exxon Mobil (0.6%) and Pfizer (0.6%) report. The reaction of their shares to the report may affect the intraday dynamics of the index.

On the medium-term horizon, the outlook for the instrument remains moderately positive. The prospect of vaccination may support positive market sentiment and significantly mitigate possible negative news related to COVID-19.

As the highs are further updated, the uptrend is expected to continue, with the round level of 4000p being the target.

The growth leaders on February 1 were International Flavors & Fragrances Inc (+15.26%), Skyworks Solutions Inc (+9.12%) and Xerox Corp (+8.27%).

Macerich Company (-10.76), Dupont De Nemours Inc (-8.23%) and Lumen Technologies Inc (-3.15%) took the top three outsiders of the index on this day.

At the moment, the S&P 500 futures contract is trading 0.5% higher than the previous day.

The nearest support levels: 3700 / 3660 / 3640
Nearest resistance levels: 3870 / 3900 / 4000

Long-term picture

The confident V-shaped recovery of the instrument led the quotes to the February highs.

On the long-term horizon, the topic of coronavirus has given way to a positive effect from the soft monetary policy of the world's central banks, which will support US indices.

An additional positive driver was the news about the development of a coronavirus vaccine, which stimulated the demand for risk among global investors.

On the horizon of the first half of 2021, the recovery of the global economy, the victory over the coronavirus and the soft monetary policy of the Fed can support the growth of the market to 4000 p.

GMA Network’s preferred shares are voting stocks

Here is the disclosure of GMA Network Inc. Posted as of June 30, 2020 and posted on July 14, 2020 on the internet site of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE): "The business enterprise's capital structure consists of preferred shares (unlisted) and common shares (listed) with the PSE with the ticker symbol GMA7. The preferred Shares are convertible to Common Shares at the fee of 5 PS (desired proportion) to at least one CS (not unusual percentage). When computing for the conversion, there are times wherein the resulting shares are fractional. The organization followed a coverage wherein the employer will purchase the fractional stocks.

"Foreign possession isn't always allowed for both not unusual and desired shares.

"During its initial public providing in 2007, the business enterprise supplied not unusual stocks (GMA7) and Philippine Deposit Receipts or PDRs (ticker symbol GMAP) issued through GMA Holdings Inc. The PDRs can be owned by means of any person regardless of citizenship or nationality. Each PDR has an underlying common percentage. The PDRs are convertible into not unusual shares and vice versa.

However, the exercise of the PDRs is situation to the foregoing nationality restrict. As of June 30, 2020, primarily based at the records supplied by using the agency's inventory switch agent, a complete of 223,566,800 PDRs have been transformed into commonplace shares.
"In its POR (public ownership document), the company breaks down in full, the desired hares, commonplace stocks and Philippine Deposit Receipts considered to be non-public. It cannot take the common shares in isolation with the PDRs for this reason it considers each while computing for the general public flow which as of June 30, 2020 stands at 21.82 percent.

"Given the convertibility of the favored shares, the employer likewise indicates the effect on the general public glide should all the preferred shares be transformed into common."

***

GMA Network, consistent with its fashionable records sheet (GIS) for 2020, listed five billion not unusual stocks and 7.Five billion preferred shares as legal capital inventory (ACS) of which 10,860,554,184 shares are owned by Filipinos: 1,662 held 3,361,047,000 common shares or 30.947 percentage with P1 par price of notable, and seven,499,507,184 desired stocks or seventy one.427 percent with P0.20 par value.


In its definitive records assertion (DIS), GMA7 pronounced having 3,361,047,000 commonplace stocks and 7,499,507,184 favored stocks as of May 31, 2020. For the first time, Due Diligencer discovered that GMA7's favored shares are voting. "Every stockholder will be entitled to 1 vote for each commonplace and preferred proportion held as of the established document," the DIS stated.

The electorate of each commonplace and voting desired stocks are as follows: Group Management & Development Inc., 789,813,389 common shares or 23.Forty seven percent; GMA Holdings Inc., 721,865,two hundred common shares or 21.45 percentage; FLG Management & Development Corp., 672,449,717 common stocks or 19.99 percentage; M.A. Jimenez Enterprises Inc., 453,882,0.5 commonplace shares or 12.49 percent; and Television International Corp., 334,378,037 not unusual shares. GMA7 placed the overall common stocks at 2,972,388,438 or 88.34 percentage consistent with the DIS.


"GMA Holdings Inc. Is ninety nine-percent owned by Gilberto R. Duavit Jr., Felipe L. Gozon and Joel Marcelo G. Gimenez," GMA7 stated within the DIS. "The shares owned by way of GMA Holdings are the underlying stocks of the financial devices referred to as Philippine Deposit Receipts which provide the holder of each PDR the proper to the shipping or sale of the underlying share (except to overseas nationals as prohibited through law) in accordance with the Philippine Deposit Receipt Instrument issued with the aid of GMA Holdings Inc. As forming a part of the registration declaration filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and with the Philippine Stock Exchange," GMA7 said within the DIS.

KKR invests in local tower builder

Private equity firm KKR based in the United States has bared its funding in Pinnacle Towers Pte. Ltd., banking at the Philippine government's push for the shared tower market.

Pinnacle entered the not unusual tower marketplace via its subsidiary Frontier Tower Associates Philippines Inc. (FTAP), which secured a pass sign from the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) to perform as an impartial tower corporation (ITC).


"The telecommunications area inside the Philippines has grown hastily within the past few years amid the growing demand for connectivity. This has brought about a resource imbalance and the want to extend current infrastructure to permit operators to offer higher service and insurance to their customers," David Luboff, partner and head of Asia-Pacific Infrastructure at KKR, stated in a announcement.

"Our investment in Pinnacle reiterates our dedication to addressing this want and assisting the Philippines' transition to a related, digital nation. We stay up for assisting the Pinnacle crew to deliver the advantages of a more digitally enabled economy to the Filipino human beings, especially in developing areas including the Visayas and Mindanao," he brought.
This marked KKR's 2nd infrastructure investment in the united states of america. Details of its funding in Pinnacle, but, have been now not disclosed.

More than two years after the authorities planned out the common tower task, the DICT on September 15 issued provisional ITC certificates of registration for 23 corporations that have already secured offers with the former.

Among the tower businesses are Aboitiz Infracapital Inc., Acoda Towers SDN Bhd, Alt-Global-Solutions Inc., Transcend Towers Infrastructure (Philippines), Inc., China Construction First Group Corp. And Wingan Construction and Development Corp., China Construction Yangtze River (M) SDN BHD, China Energy Equipment Co., Ltd, CREI Management Services FZE, Desarrollos Terrestres Inc., EEI Corp., Frontier Tower Associates Philippines, Inc., and IHS Holding Ltd.

The certificates, it stated, serves as the provisional authority to very own, assemble manage, and perform one or more passive telecommunications towers infrastructure.

Century Pacific Food net income up 26% in Jan-Sept

Listed Century Pacific Food Inc. (CNPF) recorded a 26-percent more potent net profits to P3.Three billion within the first 9 months of the yr as it noticed an multiplied demand for its merchandise during the height of the stern lockdown measures within the usa.

In a disclosure on Tuesday, the meals manufacturer stated it recorded 15-percent income boom in the third quarter on my own, strengthened by way of the 16-percent benefit of the sales of its branded commercial enterprise at some point of the length.

CNPF's branded enterprise, composed of its marine, meat and milk segments, made up 81 percent of the corporation's overall topline.

The remaining 19 percent changed into contributed by its commodity-connected OEM export business, which saw a 12 months-on-yr topline decline due to softer commodity charges, reallocation of capacity to home requirements and a sturdy peso.
Meanwhile, the business enterprise's consolidated sales for January to September rose by means of 21 percentage.

"In spite of easing restrictions, we persevered to peer healthy growth inside the 0.33 zone due in large part to the necessities and staples nature of our portfolio. Demand changed into sturdy amidst a greater difficult environment and weaker consumer sentiment given our price for cash positioning. As a end result, our products keep to take a great part of the client basket throughout all income lessons and feature validated resilient regardless of the macroeconomic situations," CNPF Chief Finance Officer Oscar Pobre said in the disclosure.

Pobre delivered they're pleased to peer persevered double-digit boom, which ought to allow the employer to cease the 12 months with a north of 20 percentage increase in income.

"We also are now placing our sights on 2021, in which wholesome demand for our center branded merchandise introduced approximately by way of shifts in customer conduct, along our competitive pipeline of recent product innovations, must permit us to grow once more by using double digits regardless of our excessive 2020 base," he added.


CNPF produces the food brands Century Tuna, Argentina, 555, Swift, Birch Tree Fortified Milk, Angel Milk, Fresca, Wow Ulam, Hunt's and Coco Mama.

The firm stated its pipeline could include the first vegan plant-primarily based brand in the u . S . A ., unMeat, that's in line with its intention to emerge as a more healthy food business enterprise and to do enterprise more responsibly.

Shares of CNPF rose P1.32 or eight.Fifty one percent to P16.Eighty four every on Tuesday.

SSS stretches July-Dec checks’ validity

Social Security System (SSS) participants have given greater time to encash their advantage and loan assessments issued from July to December 2020.


SSS President and Chief Executive Officer Aurora  Ignacio was quoted as announcing that the initiative targets to offer its participants more time to encash their advantage and mortgage checks that they might have obtained later than the usual transport time because of the coronavirus ailment 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic situation.


She delivered that the extension is likewise thinking about diverse community quarantine restrictions implemented to lessen the transmission of Covid-19.

SSS burdened that LandBank already asked its member banks to deal with the said tests.

Earlier this year, the pesnsion fund stated LandBank has additionally granted its request to extend the validity of exams generated from February to June 2020 from the present ninety days to one hundred eighty days from their issue date.


"For similarly facts, comply with the SSS Facebook web page on the 'Philippine Social Security System,' Instagram account at 'my.Sssph,' Twitter feed at 'PHLSSS,' be a part of the SSS Viber Community at 'MYSSSPH Updates,' or name the SSS hotline at 1455," it introduced."The validity of the Social Security System issued Land Bank of the Philippines (LandBank) assessments generated from July to December 2020 is prolonged up to one hundred eighty days from the date of issuance," the kingdom-run pension fund introduced in a assertion on Tuesday.

This observed after LandBank granted remaining October 12 the SSS' request to extend the validity of the stated assessments, which was to start with ninety days best, in line with the pension fund.
Petron Corp. Sustained a net lack of P12.6 billion in the first 9 months of 2020, a stark contrast to the P3.6-billion net income within the same duration closing 12 months as its bottomline continues to bear the brunt of decrease income because of the coronavirus disorder 2019 pandemic.

During the 9-month period, consolidated revenues declined by way of forty three percentage to P216.4 billion from P381.7 billion in 2019. However,

Petron pronounced a consolidated internet earnings of P1.Sixty three billion in the 0.33 area of this year.

"The agency's yr-to-date performance preserve to endure the impact of the widespread forty percentage drop in domestic quantity and the P13 billion stock losses at some stage in the primary four months of the lockdown," the listed oil agency said in a disclosure on Tuesday.